Skip to content
Bonusrotta

The Rat’s Picks

Updated · 17 bets

The Rat sniffs out money in the betting markets too, and tries to share the day’s best picks with its loyal followers. Selections are made by the Rat’s nose and the data nerds’ thumbs.

The Rat usually doesn’t explain a pick in much more detail, since the raw data speaks for itself behind the estimate. Instead, every pick always comes with an estimated probability.

And everything is recorded: the reasoning, the odds, the stake and the result are all published openly — including the days the Rat smells wrong.

No hand-picked winners after the fact. Every bet is published before kick-off and the result is recorded exactly as it lands — losses included.

The Rat does not recommend following these bets. Betting always carries risk, and every decision is your own responsibility.

Today’s pick

Ice hockeyNLA

Open

Lausanne - Ajoie

Ajoie win

Odds
5.45
Rat’s confidence
1/5
Stake
1/5
Start time

Reasoning

Fair odds 4.50.

Published

Bonusrotta.com

The Rat’s open betting record

Figures counted from 4 September 2026

Every published bet and how it finished. The figures are calculated straight from the data and no bet is ever removed.

The Rat’s open betting record
Settled bets16
Wins10
Losses6
Strike rate62.5%
Total staked40 u
Total profit+9.14 u
ROI+22.9%
Average odds2.06

October 2026: -1.16 u (5 bets)

Last 10 bets

  1. IPK - Kiekko-Vantaa: Lost
  2. Tappara - SaiPa: Lost
  3. Miami Dolphins - Kansas City Chiefs: Won
  4. Chicago Bears - Philadelphia Eagles: Lost
  5. TPS - Classic: Won
  6. Kreikka - Hollanti: Lost
  7. Ässät - Lukko: Won
  8. RoKi - Kiekko-Vantaa: Lost
  9. San Fransisco 49ers - Denver Broncos: Won
  10. Kiekko-Pojat - KeuPa HT: Lost
Cumulative profit

Total +9.14

The record currently holds 16 settled bets. ROI calculated from a sample this small swings heavily and does not yet say anything about the long-run level.

Previous picks

Ice hockeyMestis

Lost

Kiekko-Pojat - KeuPa HT

Kiekko-Pojat -1,5

Odds
1.83
Rat’s confidence
3/5
Stake
3/5
Start time
Bookmaker
BetRepublic

Reasoning

Fair odds 1.72.

Published

Amerikkalainen JalkapalloNFL

Won

San Fransisco 49ers - Denver Broncos

49ers -2,5

Odds
1.88
Rat’s confidence
3/5
Stake
3/5
Start time
Bookmaker
Duel

Reasoning

Fair odds 1.71.

Published

Ice hockeyMestis

Lost

RoKi - Kiekko-Vantaa

Kiekko-Vantaa moneyline

Odds
2.00
Rat’s confidence
3/5
Stake
3/5
Start time
Bookmaker
BetRepublic

Reasoning

Fair odds 1.83.

Published

Ice hockeyLiiga

Won

Ässät - Lukko

Lukko win

Odds
2.60
Rat’s confidence
2/5
Stake
2/5
Start time
Bookmaker
BetRepublic

Reasoning

Fair odds 2.34.

Published

FootballUEFA Nations League

Lost

Kreikka - Hollanti

Hollanti win

Odds
2.13
Rat’s confidence
1/5
Stake
1/5
Start time
Bookmaker
Dragonia

Reasoning

Fair odds 2.03.

Published

FloorballF-Liiga

Won

TPS - Classic

Classic -3,5

Odds
1.85
Rat’s confidence
5/5
Stake
5/5
Start time
Bookmaker
Paf

Reasoning

Rajakerroin 1.60.

Published

Amerikkalainen JalkapalloNFL

Lost

Chicago Bears - Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles -3,5

Odds
1.99
Rat’s confidence
4/5
Stake
4/5
Start time
Bookmaker
Duel

Reasoning

Bonusrat’s analysts estimate that the Eagles -3.5 handicap has a 57.5% probability of covering, giving the selection fair odds of 1.74 when rounded.

Published

Amerikkalainen JalkapalloNFL

Won

Miami Dolphins - Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs -9,5

Odds
1.89
Rat’s confidence
1/5
Stake
1/5
Start time
Bookmaker
Duel

Reasoning

Rotta’s analysts give the Chiefs -9.5 handicap a 55% probability of covering, resulting in fair odds of 1.82 when rounded.

Published

Ice hockeyLiiga

Lost

Tappara - SaiPa

Tappara -1,5

Odds
2.20
Rat’s confidence
2/5
Stake
2/5
Start time
Bookmaker
RoboCat

Reasoning

Rotta’s analysts estimate the probability of Tappara +1.5 covering the handicap at 50%, giving the selection fair odds of exactly 2.00.

Published

Ice hockeyMestis

Lost

IPK - Kiekko-Vantaa

Kiekko-Vantaa draw no bet

Odds
2.75
Rat’s confidence
2/5
Stake
2/5
Start time
Bookmaker
BetRepublic

Reasoning

Rotta’s analysts assign a 43% probability to the K-Vantaa draw-no-bet outcome, which puts the fair odds at 2.32.

Published

Ice hockeySHL

Won

Linköping HC - Brynäs IF

Brynäs win

Odds
2.35
Rat’s confidence
1/5
Stake
1/5
Start time
Bookmaker
VikingLuck

Reasoning

Rotta’s data nerds have calculated a 47% probability for a Brynäs win, giving fair odds of 2.14.

Published

Ice hockeyMestis

Won

Hermes - TuTo

TuTo to win (incl. OT & SO)

Odds
2.05
Rat’s confidence
3/5
Stake
3/5
Start time
Bookmaker
BetScore

Reasoning

Rat gives TuTo a 54% chance of winning → fair odds 1.85. Odds of 2.05 are good enough to play.

Published

FootballChampionship

Won

Queens Park Rangers - Preston North End

Preston +0.75

Odds
1.88
Rat’s confidence
2/5
Stake
2/5
Start time
Bookmaker
Duel

Reasoning

Rotta gives Preston +0.75 a 57% probability, making the fair odds 1.75.

Published

Ice hockeyMestis

Won

RoKi - TuTo

Over 5,5 goals

Odds
1.83
Rat’s confidence
2/5
Stake
2/5
Start time
Bookmaker
VikingLuck

Reasoning

Rotta gives a 58% probability for over 5.5 goals, making the fair odds 1.72.

Published

Ice hockeyMestis

Won

K-Vantaa - Kiekko-Pojat

Over 5,5 goals

Odds
1.86
Rat’s confidence
4/5
Stake
4/5
Start time
Bookmaker
VikingLuck

Reasoning

Rotta smells goals and estimates a 59% probability of over 5.5 goals → fair odds 1.69.

Published

Ice hockeyLiiga

Won

KooKoo - JYP

JYP win (incl. overtime and penalties)

Odds
1.90
Rat’s confidence
2/5
Stake
2/5
Start time
Bookmaker
Duel

Reasoning

Rotta gives JYP a 55% chance of winning (including overtime and shootouts) → fair odds 1.81.

Published

How to read the Rat’s confidence

Confidence states how strong the view is; the stake states the recommended number of units. They are different things: a strong view at short odds can still be a small-stake bet.

  1. 1/5 – mild interest
  2. 2/5 – cautious
  3. 3/5 – normal
  4. 4/5 – strong view
  5. 5/5 – strongest view of the day

5/5 does not mean a certain bet. In betting there is no such thing.

How the figures are calculated

The stake is in units, not euros, so the result is comparable regardless of bankroll size. A win records stake times odds minus one, a loss records the stake as a negative and a void records zero. On quarter lines (Asian handicap -0.25 or over/under 2.75, for example) half the stake can be returned, and the bet is recorded as a half win or a half loss: only half the stake settles, and the result is calculated from that. ROI is total profit divided by the stake that actually settled, and average odds are weighted by the same share — the returned part counts towards neither. The hit rate is counted per bet: a half win is a hit and a half loss a miss, and their halfness shows in the profit and ROI.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Rat’s daily pick?

The Rat’s daily pick is at most two selections a day. The selections are made by hand and no bet is forced out: if the day has nothing worth backing, it stays empty — an empty day beats a knowingly bad bet. The sport, competition, selection, odds, the Rat’s confidence, the stake and the reasoning are all published before kick-off, and the result is recorded exactly as it lands.

What does the Rat’s confidence mean?

The Rat’s confidence is the strength of the view on a scale of 1 to 5: one is mild interest and five is the strongest view of the day. Even five does not mean a certain bet, because in betting there is no such thing — the odds always say the outcome is uncertain.

How are the profit and ROI calculated?

The stake is given in units, not euros, so the result stays comparable regardless of bankroll size. A win records stake times odds minus one, a loss records the stake as a negative and a void records zero. On quarter lines such as Asian handicap -0.25 or over/under 2.75 half the stake is returned: the bet is then a half win or a half loss, and the result is calculated from that half. ROI is the profit divided by the stake that actually settled.

Can published bets be edited afterwards?

No. The odds, the confidence and the stake are locked at publication, and only the state of the bet changes once the match is settled. No bet is ever removed from the page, and losses are recorded the same way as wins. The figures are counted from the tracking start date; bets published before it are shown in the Earlier period section but are not part of the figures. The publication time is recorded and is always before kick-off, so a bet cannot have been picked once the result was known.

Play responsibly

Gambling should stay entertainment. Set money and time limits in advance, never play with borrowed money and do not chase losses. Most casinos offer deposit limits, time-outs and self-exclusion in your account settings.