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The Rat’s daily pick

Updated · 3 bets

The Rat picks out at most one bet a day: the best value spot the odds comparison finds, when there is one.

The reasoning, the odds, the stake and the result are all recorded openly — including the days the Rat smells wrong.

No hand-picked winners after the fact. No hidden losses. Every bet stays in the record.

The Rat does not recommend following these bets. Betting always carries risk, and every decision is your own responsibility.

Latest pick

FootballSerie A

Won

Lazio – Genoa

Lazio to win

Odds
2.38
Rat’s confidence
1/5
Stake
1/5
Start time
Bookmaker
Matchbook

Reasoning

A pick made by the Rat’s automation from an odds comparison: Matchbook offers 2.38 on this outcome while the average across 24 bookmakers is 2.24. The market consensus gives the selection a probability of roughly 43 per cent, so at the best available price the expected value is about 1.2 per cent in our favour. No clear overpriced selection was available today, so this is the steadiest value pick of the day — the confidence rating is therefore at the bottom of the scale and the stake the smallest possible.

Published

The Rat’s open betting record

Every published bet and how it finished. The figures are calculated straight from the data and no bet is ever removed.

The Rat’s open betting record
Settled bets3
Wins2
Losses1
Strike rate66.7%
Total staked3 u
Total profit+1.28 u
ROI+42.7%
Average odds1.97

August 2026: +1.28 u (3 bets)

Last 3 bets

  1. Torino – AC Milan: Won
  2. FSV Mainz 05 – SC Paderborn: Lost
  3. Lazio – Genoa: Won

The record currently holds 3 settled bets. ROI calculated from a sample this small swings heavily and does not yet say anything about the long-run level.

Previous picks

FootballBundesliga

Lost

FSV Mainz 05 – SC Paderborn

FSV Mainz 05 to win

Odds
1.62
Rat’s confidence
1/5
Stake
1/5
Start time
Bookmaker
GTbets

Reasoning

A pick made by the Rat’s automation from an odds comparison: GTbets offers 1.62 on this outcome while the average across 24 bookmakers is 1.54. The market consensus gives the selection a probability of roughly 62 per cent, so at the best available price the expected value is about 0.7 per cent in our favour. No clear overpriced selection was available today, so this is the steadiest value pick of the day — the confidence rating is therefore at the bottom of the scale and the stake the smallest possible.

Published

FootballSerie A

Won

Torino – AC Milan

AC Milan to win

Odds
1.90
Rat’s confidence
1/5
Stake
1/5
Start time
Bookmaker
Matchbook

Reasoning

A pick made by the Rat’s automation from an odds comparison: Matchbook offers 1.90 on this outcome while the average across 24 bookmakers is 1.80. The market consensus gives the selection roughly a 53 per cent probability, so at the best available price the expected value is about 0.1 per cent in our favour. The edge is small, as it always is in odds comparison — this is not a certainty, because there is no such thing.

Published

How to read the Rat’s confidence

Confidence states how strong the view is; the stake states the recommended number of units. They are different things: a strong view at short odds can still be a small-stake bet.

  1. 1/5 – mild interest
  2. 2/5 – cautious
  3. 3/5 – normal
  4. 4/5 – strong view
  5. 5/5 – strongest view of the day

5/5 does not mean a certain bet. In betting there is no such thing.

How the figures are calculated

The stake is in units, not euros, so the result is comparable regardless of bankroll size. A win records stake times odds minus one, a loss records the stake as a negative and a void records zero. ROI is total profit divided by total staked, and average odds are calculated from settled bets.

Frequently asked questions

What is the Rat’s daily pick?

The Rat’s daily pick is at most one selection a day: the best value spot the odds comparison finds that day. If no selection comes out ahead on the numbers, no bet is published at all — an empty day beats a knowingly bad bet. The sport, competition, selection, odds, the Rat’s confidence, the stake and the reasoning are all published before kick-off, and the result is recorded exactly as it lands.

What does the Rat’s confidence mean?

The Rat’s confidence is the strength of the view on a scale of 1 to 5: one is mild interest and five is the strongest view of the day. Even five does not mean a certain bet, because in betting there is no such thing — the odds always say the outcome is uncertain.

How are the profit and ROI calculated?

The stake is given in units, not euros, so the result stays comparable regardless of bankroll size. A win records stake times odds minus one, a loss records the stake as a negative and a void records zero. ROI is the total profit divided by the total staked.

Can published bets be edited afterwards?

No. The odds, the confidence and the stake are locked at publication, and only the state of the bet changes once the match is settled. No bet is ever removed from the record, so weak spells show up in the figures too. The publication time is recorded and is always before kick-off, so a bet cannot have been picked once the result was known.

Play responsibly

Gambling should stay entertainment. Set money and time limits in advance, never play with borrowed money and do not chase losses. Most casinos offer deposit limits, time-outs and self-exclusion in your account settings.